Will electric cars become a mainstream technology?
Electric cars are frequently in the news these days. And as we know, many folks think the technology beats out other alternative fuels any day. But that answers the "should they become mainstream" question....
When it comes right down to it, will they?
I don't think there's any doubt about it. Just consider the fact that virtually every major auto manufacturer is working on either plug-in hybrids, fully electric vehicles, or both. A couple have even discussed the goal of eliminating gas cars from their lineups altogether.
Gas is becoming ever more expensive and no more environmentally friendly, so people are demanding alternatives. Electric cars are simply the best technology. They're the most efficient at converting stored energy into motion, they have few moving parts that can break, they're quiet, fun to drive, etc.
The only issues holding them back are cost, range, and refuel time. Mass production will take care of the cost disadvantage. In fact, the Green Vehicles Triac is already cost competetive with gas cars, as will be several other EVs coming out in the next year or two. And of course EVs have a huge fuel cost advantage, at about 2-3 cents per mile as opposed to about 8-9 cents per mile for the Prius and 13-15 cents per mile for your average sedan. The range issue is being addressed - the Tesla Roadster already has 200+ mile per charge range, as will their 2010 Model S. If EEStor is successful, so will the CityZENN. EEStor would also solve the recharge time problem, as is Altair Nanotechnologies.
I think biofuels (particuarly algae oil) will also have a share of the market. Hydrogen might eventually, but not in the forseeable future. I think electric cars will comprise the majority of cars on the road before long.
just watched obama speak on his energy plan...which includes huge subsidies for auto makers to develop/manufacture alternative fuel vehicles, as well as $7000 individual subsidies for those who purchase these vehicles. these subsidies are part of his goal to eliminate american dependence on foreign oil in 10 years. ambitious, but bodes well for the increasing embrace of alternative fuel cars (including evs) by the american public in the near future.
Along those lines, Obama specifically proposed getting 1 million 150 mile-per-gallon plug-in hybrids on U.S. roads within six years, converting the entire White House fleet to plug-in hybrid vehicles within one year, and converting all federal vehicle purchases to plug-in hybrids or all-electric by 2012. And of course there was McCain's (gimmicky) proposal for a $300 million award for anyone who can make a leap foward in EV battery technology. So even the presidential nominees see the EV writing on the wall.
For the overwhelming majority of people in this country, a vehicle that gets us safely from home to work *cheaply* and *conveniently*, is ALL we need. We don't buy gas cars because we love gasoline. So whether it's diesel, natural gas, electric, hybrid, hydrogen or _____ (fill in yet-to-be-invented technology here), is really beside the point. All that matters is cost and convenience. Our own economic survival is at stake and whichever technology solves our problem will win. The environmental benefit will be an after effect.
That said, electric seems to be the best prospect. If economies of scale can trim the cost of EVs substantially (below 30K for an entry-level) then they will mushroom. Cost is far more important than performance in this market. Most of us will be willing to live with less than stellar range and power as long as we save money.
PS. When I say "we" I refer to the average, mainstream American consumer
