Why electric vehicles will win.

I just read this great article at the speculist that pretty much sums up why electric vehicles will win out over every liquid fuel.

The answer is economics of course.

Any thoughts? Disagree?

I made a similar argument in the fuel costs section of my Electric Vehicles wiki.

I entirely agree that electrics will 'win' in terms of future transportation.  They're simply the most efficient option.  The only thing holding them back is the battery technology (range and recharge time), which is advancing rapidly.  We've already got the Triac able to go 100 miles per charge and capable of highway speeds, at a cost of just $20k, for example.  And refueling an electric car costs less than one-third what it costs to refuel a Prius, and about one-sixth the average American car.  And rapid recharge stations can solve the recharge time issue.

Plus because it's manufactured domestically, electric rates are much more stable than gas prices.  There's no reliance on foreign oil, no need to transport fuels long distances, and with renewables, no worry that we're going to run out of sunlight or wind.

Then of course there's the environmental benefit (lower greenhouse gas emissions even when most power comes from coal).  This will become even more important if a price is placed on carbon emissions.

I think algae biodiesel could become competetive with EVs, depending on how much it costs to produce.  But no doubt EVs are going to be hard to compete with.

Although I do agree that EVs can be better, unless the electric car is dominated by newcomers outside of the traditional auto industry, I don't see it taking over.

Here's my reasoning: Most cars on the road today are based on gasoline combustion (non-diesel) engines. The best alternative fuel for them is ethanol. With corn ethanol already discredited, we're going to see more and more bio-engineering approaches (algae or bacteria producing cellulosic ethanol). If these technologies succeed before the EV achieves critical mass, then guess what. The auto industry will just switch to ethanol because it's a sustaining innovation (it keeps the value chain mostly intact). If the EV comes from the outside and achieves critical mass before a viable alternative to gasoline is in place, then the game is over indeed.

I don't think biofuels are a big threat.

Only a small percentage of cars currently on the road are flex-fuel.  While most cars can use E85, it's risky and not recommended.  In fact, any damage caused will probably void the warranty.  And of course there aren't many diesels around.

So then it boils down to which technology becomes common in new cars.  The Chevy Volt is receiving a ton of attention.  Virtually every major auto manufacturer is working on a plug-in hybrid, fully electric vehicle, or both, and most are shooting for a 2010 release date.

Meanwhile the most promising biofuel - algae oil - is probably about a decade away from any kind of large scale production.  Ethanol is still dominated by corn, which has received a lot of bad press (and rightfully so).  In fact, I think corn-based ethanol has probably done some damage to the biofuel industry.  It provides lower fuel efficiency than gasoline, and studies have shown it may be worse in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

So I think the stage is set for an EV revolution.

I basically agree with dana1981... the stage is set for PHEV and BEV vehicles. 

One comment about the E85 flex-fuel vehicles.  There may have been over 5 million of these vehicles sold, but a huge number of them were sold in states like California where you basically have to do an internet search to try to find a seller of E85... is very difficult to find out here - so, they are typically driven with normal fuel... many of the owners not even thinking about the option.

Can today's gas stations become charging stations?

If there is money to be made doing so, I'm sure they'll find a way.

What we need is faster charging batteries, super capacitors look like they may have potential in that area. In the mean time, perhaps an exchange system, like what they do with propane tanks now...

I'm thinking that parking garages might be better recharging stations than gas retailers. They don't need hazardous gasoline tanks and cars stay in there long enough ...

Yeah sure.  The great thing about EVs is that anywhere can become a charging station.  The company making batteries for Phoenix (Altair, I believe) is supposed to have batteries capable of a 5 minute recharge at a high voltage rapid recharge station.  You can set these up anywhere connected to the power grid - gas stations, parking garages, parking lots, your house - wherever.  I recall reading that they cost something like $8,000 apiece.  EEStor's ultracapacitor batteries are also supposed to have something like a 5 minute recharge time too, assuming the technology works.

And the other nice aspect is that you don't need a rapid recharge station - you also have the option of an overnight recharge at a standard power outlet.

I agree, EVs are the way to go. They are just more efficent then a combostion engine. It would be foolish to go down any other path. For example, T-Boone Pickens in his plan calls for natural gas to fuel our cars, what do you think about that?

That was discussed a bit in the Pickens plan topic.  I don't think it's a good idea.  Natural gas can work well for buses where they only require one central refueling station, but creating widespread infrastructure is a problem just like with hydrogen.  At least with natural gas you can hook up a refueling system to your line at home, but that's an added cost to a vehicle that's already more expensive than hybrids, and no more environmentally friendly.  After all, natural gas is still a fossil fuel.  And one which we don't have large quantities of.

I want a pure battery electric car, but I don’t think we will see one built by the car companies we grew up